---
title: "Which Predictions are provided by Mapp Intelligence?"
slug: "which-predictions-are-provided-by-mapp-intelligence"
updated: 2024-04-03T13:36:46Z
published: 2024-04-03T13:36:46Z
canonical: "docs.mapp.com/which-predictions-are-provided-by-mapp-intelligence"
---

> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.mapp.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Which Predictions are provided by Mapp Intelligence?

Predictions are part of the Mapp AI package and are used to make forecasts based on user behavior.

- What is the likelihood that a specific visitor will never return to the website?
- What is the likelihood that a specific visitor will buy something during one of the subsequent visits?
- What order value will a specific visitor generate with his next order/in the next 30 days/lifetime?

This information is relevant to derive individual marketing measures.

- The costs of marketing measures should not exceed the expected profit.
- Only spend money on customers with high potential!

A self-learning system continuously analyses influences and considers them for calculation.

- The system is configured individually for each customer.
- In the first 2-3 months, in particular, the predictions are automatically adapted on a customer-specific basis.

Various criteria are analyzed:

- Number of visits
- Number of orders
- Purchases/visit
- Visit duration Avg
- Page impressions/visit
- Product views/visit
- Value of product views/visit
- Order value Avg
- Order value
- Days since first/last visit
- Days since first/last purchase
- …

The following prediction metrics and dimensions are available:

|  |  |  | Available as |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Metric/ Value | Label | Description | Metric | Dimension |
| Churn Probability | User – Predicted Churn Probability % (interval 10) | Indicates how high the probability is that a visitor will not revisit the website. |  | X |
| User - Predicted Churn Probability % | X |  |
| Conversion Probability | User – Predicted Conversion Probability % (interval 10) | Indicates how high the probability is that a visitor will buy during one of the subsequent visits. |  | X |
| User – Predicted Conversion Probability % | X |  |
| Order Value | User – Predicted Order Value Next 30 Days | The predicted order value that a user will generate in the next 30 days. | X |  |
| User – Predicted Next Order Value | The predicted order value that a user will generate in his next order. | X |  |
| Customer Lifetime Value | User – Predicted Customer Lifetime Value (interval 50) | The predicted order value that a user will generate in addition to the already measured order value. |  | X |
| User – Predicted Customer Lifetime Value | X |  |

- To calculate the churn probability, all needed is for each page to be tracked in Mapp Intelligence.
- To calculate the other probabilities, orders, and products have to be measured as well.

---

### Calculating the churn probability

**Example:**

![](https://cdn.document360.io/554b9b98-6720-4d8b-9919-c7b203d72648/Images/Documentation/c131540a-147c-458a-a408-0d014a73611a.png)

**Day 1**

Five percent of visitors return to the website on the day of the first visit. The churn probability on day 1 is: 100 % – sum of all returning visitors (Day 1 – Day 8) = 100 % - 22 % = 78 %

**Day 2**

Seven percent of visitors return to the website one day after the first visit. The churn probability on day 2 is: 100 % – sum of all returning visitors (Day 2 – Day 8) = 100 % - 17 % = 83 %

The overall churn probability considers when visitors were last active on the website.

Individual behavior patterns are now considered in the calculation.

**For example:**

- Visit duration Avg
- Page impressions / visit
- Number of visits
- …

For example, if there were ten page impressions during the first visit, only visitors with a similar number of page impressions would be included in the calculation.