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# Which Predictions are provided by Mapp Intelligence?

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Predictions are part of the Mapp AI package and are used to make forecasts based on user behavior.

What is the likelihood that a specific visitor will never return to the website?

What is the likelihood that a specific visitor will buy something during one of the subsequent visits?

What order value will a specific visitor generate with his next order/in the next 30 days/lifetime?

This information is relevant to derive individual marketing measures.

The costs of marketing measures should not exceed the expected profit.

Only spend money on customers with high potential!

A self-learning system continuously analyses influences and considers them for calculation.

The system is configured individually for each customer.

In the first 2-3 months, in particular, the predictions are automatically adapted on a customer-specific basis.

Various criteria are analyzed:

Number of visits

Number of orders

Purchases/visit

Visit duration Avg

Page impressions/visit

Product views/visit

Value of product views/visit

Order value Avg

Order value

Days since first/last visit

Days since first/last purchase

…

The following prediction metrics and dimensions are available:

Available as | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Metric/ | Label | Description | Metric | Dimension |

Churn Probability | User – Predicted Churn Probability % (interval 10) | Indicates how high the probability is that a visitor will not revisit the website. | X | |

User - Predicted Churn Probability % | X | |||

Conversion Probability | User – Predicted Conversion Probability % (interval 10) | Indicates how high the probability is that a visitor will buy during one of the subsequent visits. | X | |

User – Predicted Conversion Probability % | X | |||

Order Value | User – Predicted Order Value Next 30 Days | The predicted order value that a user will generate in the next 30 days. | X | |

User – Predicted Next Order Value | The predicted order value that a user will generate in his next order. | X | ||

Customer Lifetime Value | User – Predicted Customer Lifetime Value (interval 50) | The predicted order value that a user will generate in addition to the already measured order value. | X | |

User – Predicted Customer Lifetime Value | X |

To calculate the churn probability, all needed is for each page to be tracked in Mapp Intelligence.

To calculate the other probabilities, orders, and products have to be measured as well.

### Calculating the churn probability

**Example:**

**Day 1**

Five percent of visitors return to the website on the day of the first visit.

The churn probability on day 1 is: 100 % – sum of all returning visitors (Day 1 – Day 8) = 100 % - 22 % = 78 %

**Day 2**

Seven percent of visitors return to the website one day after the first visit.

The churn probability on day 2 is: 100 % – sum of all returning visitors (Day 2 – Day 8) = 100 % - 17 % = 83 %

The overall churn probability considers when visitors were last active on the website.

Individual behavior patterns are now considered in the calculation.

**For example:**

Visit duration Avg

Page impressions / visit

Number of visits

…

For example, if there were ten page impressions during the first visit, only visitors with a similar number of page impressions would be included in the calculation.