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      Which Predictions are provided by Mapp Intelligence?
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      Which Predictions are provided by Mapp Intelligence?

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      Article summary

      Predictions are part of the Mapp AI package and are used to make forecasts based on user behavior.

      • What is the likelihood that a specific visitor will never return to the website?

      • What is the likelihood that a specific visitor will buy something during one of the subsequent visits?

      • What order value will a specific visitor generate with his next order/in the next 30 days/lifetime?

      This information is relevant to derive individual marketing measures.

      • The costs of marketing measures should not exceed the expected profit.

      • Only spend money on customers with high potential!

      A self-learning system continuously analyses influences and considers them for calculation.

      • The system is configured individually for each customer.

      • In the first 2-3 months, in particular, the predictions are automatically adapted on a customer-specific basis.

      Various criteria are analyzed:

      • Number of visits

      • Number of orders

      • Purchases/visit

      • Visit duration Avg

      • Page impressions/visit

      • Product views/visit

      • Value of product views/visit

      • Order value Avg

      • Order value

      • Days since first/last visit

      • Days since first/last purchase

      • …

      The following prediction metrics and dimensions are available:




      Available as

      Metric/
      Value

      Label

      Description

      Metric

      Dimension

      Churn Probability

      User – Predicted Churn Probability % (interval 10)

      Indicates how high the probability is that a visitor will not revisit the website.


      X

      User - Predicted Churn Probability %

      X


      Conversion Probability

      User – Predicted Conversion Probability % (interval 10)

      Indicates how high the probability is that a visitor will buy during one of the subsequent visits.


      X

      User – Predicted Conversion Probability %

      X


      Order Value

      User – Predicted Order Value Next 30 Days

      The predicted order value that a user will generate in the next 30 days.

      X


      User – Predicted Next Order Value

      The predicted order value that a user will generate in his next order.

      X


      Customer Lifetime Value

      User – Predicted Customer Lifetime Value (interval 50)

      The predicted order value that a user will generate in addition to the already measured order value.


      X

      User – Predicted Customer Lifetime Value

      X


      • To calculate the churn probability, all needed is for each page to be tracked in Mapp Intelligence.

      • To calculate the other probabilities, orders, and products have to be measured as well.

      Calculating the churn probability

      Example:

      Day 1

      Five percent of visitors return to the website on the day of the first visit.
      The churn probability on day 1 is: 100 % – sum of all returning visitors (Day 1 – Day 8) = 100 % - 22 % = 78 %

      Day 2

      Seven percent of visitors return to the website one day after the first visit.
      The churn probability on day 2 is: 100 % – sum of all returning visitors (Day 2 – Day 8) = 100 % - 17 % = 83 %

      The overall churn probability considers when visitors were last active on the website.

      Individual behavior patterns are now considered in the calculation.

      For example:

      • Visit duration Avg

      • Page impressions / visit

      • Number of visits

      • …

      For example, if there were ten page impressions during the first visit, only visitors with a similar number of page impressions would be included in the calculation.

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